A fierce battle of narratives has erupted after the first phase of polling in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, with both the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claiming early momentum - well before a single vote has been counted. At the centre of the political messaging is TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee, who has projected sweeping gains for his party. “I am not a psephologist, but I am generally not wrong with my predictions,” he said, claiming that the TMC has already “hit a century” in Phase 1 and will “cross 200” seats after Phase 2 - suggesting a landslide well beyond the majority mark of 148 in the 294 member Assembly. “After double century I have no idea where will this number stop. TMC is winning”, asserted Abhishek Banerjee
Phase 1 polling, held on April 23 across 152 constituencies, recorded an unprecedented turnout of over 92%, the highest in the state in over a decade. Election observers note that such a surge is politically significant—but not necessarily decisive. The turnout spike comes despite a major shake up in electoral rolls under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. Around 18 lakh voters were deleted in Phase 1 constituencies alone, part of a larger statewide deletion estimated at over 90 lakh names.
Paradoxically, even with fewer registered voters, more people turned out to vote than in previous elections, with reports indicating a sharp rise in absolute voter participation. Analysts suggest that fear of disenfranchisement may have driven voters to polling booths in large numbers. The second phase, covering 142 seats on April 29, is also expected to witness similarly high turnout due to the same concerns.
The SIR exercise has become a defining backdrop of this election. While authorities maintain that deletions targeted duplicate, shifted, or deceased voters, critics allege that the process disproportionately impacted vulnerable communities. In several constituencies, electoral rolls shrank dramatically, shifting the political arithmetic on the ground. The controversy has also injected urgency into voter behaviour, turning turnout itself into a political statement.
While Abhishek Banerjee’s “double century” claim sets an aggressive tone for the TMC, the BJP is matching it with its own assertions. Party leaders have claimed that they have already crossed the 100-seat mark in Phase 1, framing the high turnout as a sign of anti-incumbency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the turnout as a “victory of trust over fear,” interpreting it as support for the BJP’s campaign. On the other hand, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has argued that the same turnout reflects public resistance to both the BJP and the SIR exercise.
What does high turnout really mean?
Historically, high turnout in West Bengal has not consistently favoured one party. While it often signals heightened political engagement, its electoral impact depends on who turns out and why.
* In 2021, high turnout coincided with a strong TMC victory.
* In 2011, a similar surge helped end decades of Left rule.
This time, the added variable is SIR. With lakhs of voters removed and others mobilised by fear or anger, traditional turnout-based predictions may be less reliable. With 142 crucial seats voting in Phase 2, including politically sensitive districts in south Bengal, the election is far from settled. Abhishek Banerjee’s confident projections and the BJP’s counterclaims underline a simple reality: this election is being fought as much through perception as through votes.
