Maharastra Assembly Election: What Do Lok Sabha Numbers Say?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday, announced the dates for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly election 2024. Maharashtra will go to polls on November 20, while polling will be held in two phases in Jharkhand on November 13 and November 20. 

This will be first assembly election in Maharastra after the split in Shiv Sena, followed by toppling of Uddhav Thackeray government in 2022. Eknath Shinde had then formed the government in alliance with the BJP. Interestingly just not Shiv Sena, but Sharad Pawar’s The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had also seen a spilt with Ajit Pawar walking out with his faction. The showdown will essentially be between the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Shiv Sena-UBT, NCP-Sharad Pawar faction, Congress and the ruling Mahayuti Alliance comprising BJP, Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde faction and NCP-Ajit Pawar faction.

In the 2019 assembly election, the BJP won 105 seats, while the Congress secured 44, Shiv Sena 56, and NCP 54. Even though Uddhav Thackeray’s united Shiv Sena was in alliance with the BJP but post the election, Thackeray went on to become the Chief Minister after joining hands with Congress and Sharad Pawar. Thackeray had remained the chief minister for close to three years. While Eknath Shinde became the Chief Minister, former Chief Minister and BJP leader Devender Fernandes was made the deputy Chief Minister. Later Ajit Pawar, after he had jumped ship, too, was made the second deputy chief minister of Maharastra.

The 2024 Lok Sabha Election became the first test post the changed political dynamics. The MVA bagged 30 out of 48 seats with the Congress emerging as the single largest party with 13 seats. Shiv Sena UBT won 9 seats, BJP won 9 seats (down from 23 in 2019), Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena bagged 7 seats and Ajit Pawar's NCP won 1. Interestingly, accordingly to Lok Sabha results but in perspective of the assembly segments, the BJP was ahead in 83 assembly seats, down from its current strength of 103 seats. Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena leading in 38 seats, while Ajit Pawar's NCP was leading in 6 constituencies. Another BJP ally Rashtriya Samaj Paksha was leading in 1 seat taking the overall tally of leads for the Mahayuti alliance in 128 seats, significantly down from its current strength of 203.  On the other hand, MVA was ahead in 151 assembly seats- the Congress leading in 63 assembly seats, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena was ahead in 56 seats and Sharad Pawar's NCP led in 32 seats. 

The counting of votes will take place on November 23. According to ECI, 9.63 crore people are eligible voters in Maharashtra while the number of eligible voters in Jharkand are 2.6 crore. While the existing tenure of Jharkhand assembly had time till January 5 next year, but the term of the 288-member Maharashtra assembly ends on November 26.