Exit Polls Signal Strong Lead for BJP in Delhi Assembly Elections, AAP Faces Sharp Decline

As the voting for the Delhi Assembly elections concluded, multiple exit polls have indicated a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to gain a strong lead over the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Meanwhile, Congress is expected to continue its struggle with minimal gains.

According to various exit poll estimates, the BJP is poised to secure anywhere between 35 and 60 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. This would mark a shift in the national capital’s political paradigm. In the flip side, AAP, which has been in power since 2015, is forecasted to win between 10 and 37 seats—a steep decline from its commanding 2020 tally of 62 seats. Congress, once the dominant political force in Delhi, is predicted to secure a mere 0-2 seats, with some polls even suggesting a near wipeout.

Exit poll projections vary, but all point to a strong showing for the BJP. Matrize suggests the BJP will win 35-40 seats, with AAP securing 32-37 seats, indicating a close race. P-Marq, however, forecasts a wider gap, with BJP winning 39-44 seats and AAP landing at 21-31 seats. People’s Pulse, on the other hand, predicts a landslide victory for the BJP, estimating 51-60 seats for the party and only 10-18 for AAP. Poll Diary estimates BJP will secure 42-50 seats, leaving AAP at 18-25 seats, while JVC’s exit poll shows similar dominance for BJP (39-45 seats), with AAP at 22-31 seats. People’s Insight and Chanakya Strategies both project BJP winning 40-44 seats and AAP securing 25-28 seats.

As for Congress, most exit polls predict the party will manage just 0-2 seats. However, Chanakya Strategies gives Congress a slightly better projection of 2-3 seats.
If these exit poll projections hold true, AAP’s decade-long rule in Delhi could come to an end, paving the way for a BJP-led government in the capital after more than 20 years. However, the final results, set to be declared on February 8, will be crucial to confirm whether these trends materialize.

In terms of voter turnout, Delhi saw a 57.70% participation by 5 PM. North-East Delhi recorded the highest turnout at 63.83%, while South-East Delhi had the lowest at 53.77%. Other areas such as Shahdara (61.35%), East Delhi (58.98%), and South-West Delhi (58.86%) also showed strong voter engagement. The final voter turnout figures will be announced by the Election Commission.

With the exit polls suggesting a dramatic shift in favor of the BJP, all eyes will be on the final results to see if these trends reflect the voters' decisions on February 8.