U.S. President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform late on Wednesday to announce a new trade deal with Pakistan, a move that has raised eyebrows given the ongoing trade negotiations with India and his recent imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods. The announcement comes on the heels of Trump's repeated claims - now stated 30 times that he brokered the ceasefire following India's Operation Sindoor, a claim India has consistently rejected.
In his post, Trump stated, "We are very busy in the White House today working on Trade Deals. I have spoken to the Leaders of many Countries, all of whom want to make the United States 'extremely happy.' I will be meeting with the South Korean Trade Delegation this afternoon. South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs. I will be interested in hearing what that offer is. We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!"
This announcement follows Trump's decision on July 30 to impose a 25% tariff on India, effective August 1, along with an unspecified "penalty" for India's purchase of energy and arms from Russia. Trump justified the tariff, stating "India is our friend, but their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous Trade Barriers of any Country. While they take less from us but impose huge tariff on our exports.” He further argued that India's trade policies necessitated a reciprocal response to address the $46 billion U.S. trade deficit with India.
The timing of the Pakistan deal is notable, as Trump has indicated that trade negotiations with India are still ongoing, with a delegation expected in Delhi by mid-August. Indian officials remain optimistic, suggesting that any tariff increase would be temporary, citing five rounds of prior talks. However, Trump's pivot to Pakistan, while simultaneously pressuring India, underscores a strategic shift in U.S. trade policy in South Asia. An Indian government official, speaking anonymously, noted, "Talks are progressing, but the U.S. focus on Pakistan while imposing tariffs on us sends mixed signals."
Adding to the complexity is Trump's persistent claim that he mediated the May 10 ceasefire between India and Pakistan following ‘Operation Sindoor’, a military response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. India launched precision strikes on nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, escalating tensions. Trump has repeatedly asserted, including in a recent on-camera statement at a NATO summit in The Hague, "I stopped the war between India and Pakistan. I said, ‘If you stop it, we’ll do a lot of trade. If you don’t, we’re not going to do any trade.’ And they stopped." He credited trade leverage for averting what he called a potential nuclear conflict.
India, however, has firmly denied these claims, emphasising that the ceasefire was negotiated directly through military channels between the Directors General of Military Operations of both nations. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reiterated, "The cessation of firing was agreed between the military commanders of both sides through direct contact. The issue of trade didn’t come up in any discussions with the U.S."
Critics argue that Trump’s trade manoeuvres reflect his "America First" policy, potentially straining relations with democratic allies like India while engaging with Pakistan to counterbalance regional dynamics. Economic analysts warn that the 25% tariff on India could disrupt the $77.5 billion Indian export market to the U.S., particularly in electronics and gems, while the penalty for Russian energy purchases adds further pressure. Meanwhile, the lack of clarity on the Pakistan deal raises questions about its scope and impact.
