Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China next week to attend the regional summit SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) in Tianjin city from August 31 to September 1. This will be PM Modi’s first visit since the 2020 Galwan showdown between India and China even though he had last met President Xi Jinping in the sidelines of BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024. He is also expected to hold high-level talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as both nations navigate the ripple effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. The visit, aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and addressing regional security concerns, comes at a critical juncture as India faces mounting pressure from U.S. tariffs targeting its exports and its continued purchase of Russian oil.
Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has intensified his trade war, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 1, 2025, along with an unspecified “penalty” for India’s energy and defence ties with Russia. Trump has publicly criticised India, labelling it a “very big abuser” of trade and accusing it of profiting from Russian oil purchases amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. These tariffs threaten to disrupt India’s $66 billion export market to the U.S., with sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and steel facing significant losses. In response, India has maintained its non-aligned foreign policy, defending its right to purchase Russian oil to meet domestic energy demands. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasised that India’s oil imports were initially encouraged by the U.S. to stabilise global energy markets, calling Trump’s tariff threats “unjustified.”
This time at the SCO, discussions with 10 member countries is expected to cover terrorism and regional security along with trade. Efforts will be made to restore stability and dialogue in India-China relations. There is a possibility that PM Modi will have bilateral meetings with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit.
China, facing its own trade war with the U.S., with tariffs on Chinese goods peaking at 145% before a temporary reduction to 30% - has expressed interest in coordinating with India to mitigate the impact of Trump’s policies. Both nations, as major buyers of Russian oil, share a common interest in resisting U.S. demands to curb these purchases. However, India’s “strategic ambiguity” ensures it avoids fully aligning with either the U.S. or China, prioritising its national interests.
At home, Modi faces criticism for his handling of U.S.-India relations. Opposition leaders, including Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, have called the tariff dispute a “catastrophic failure” of Modi’s foreign policy, accusing him of failing to secure India’s economic interests. The tariffs could exacerbate India’s slowing economic growth, with experts warning of a potential 1-2% hit to GDP if the trade war escalates. Globally, Modi’s China visit could influence the dynamics of the Quad alliance and India’s role as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. While India and the U.S. share concerns about China’s regional ambitions, Modi’s outreach to Beijing may signal a pragmatic shift to safeguard India’s economy amid Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.
