A research paper hints at election manipulation by the BJP, stirs up controversy

A research paper titled 'Democratic Backsliding in the World's Largest Democracy' has become a catalyst for political controversy. The paper, authored by Sabyasachi Das, an assistant professor of economics at the Ashoka university, has raised concerns regarding potential vote manipulation by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during the last general elections. The paper’s findings have triggered a political showdown months ahead of 2024 loksabha elections.

In his research paper, Sabyasachi Das used a combination of new datasets to analyze election outcomes from 1977 to 2019 at the candidate level, and from 2019 to 2021 at the state assembly level. The paper's key findings suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a disproportionate number of closely contested constituencies, particularly in states where they were in power during the elections. Furthermore, Das highlighted that the purportedly manipulated results were prevalent in areas with a significant number of state civil service (SCS) officers from BJP-governed states, who act as election observers. He contended that these officers, as compared to centrally appointed Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers, are more susceptible to political sway. Das's arguments uncover evidence indicative of potential election manipulation.

Commenting on the matter, Das said "I access the well-established post poll survey- NES of 2019 to investigate election manipulation, I compile two different but official versions of constituency level Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) turnout data (for 2019 general election) to directly measure data discrepancy.”

He further added "Election manipulation, can take place at the stage of voter registration manipulation.I focus on Muslim voters who generally do not support BJP. And they are easily recognised by their names. I find that in the constituencies that BJP lost is located in the high Muslim share region. However, this negative relationship gets significantly reduced in PCs barely won by the party; In those PCs the likelihood of the event does not fall in ACs with higher Muslim share. This again supports the Manipulation hypothesis". PC referred to Parlamentary Constituency and AC referred to Assembly Constituency.


The research paper’s abstract notes, “Democratic backsliding is a growing concern globally. This paper contributes to the discussion by documenting irregular patterns in the 2019 general election in India and identifying whether they are due to electoral manipulation or precise control, i.e., incumbent party’s ability to precisely predict and affect win margins through campaigning. I compile several new datasets and present evidence that is consistent with electoral manipulation in closely contested constituencies and is less supportive of the precise control hypothesis. Manipulation appears to take the form of targeted electoral discrimination against India’s largest minority group – Muslims, partly facilitated by weak monitoring by election observers. The results present a worrying development for the future of democracy."


Following the paper's publication, the author experienced a wave of backlash on social media from pro-BJP accounts. After its publication on the internet, Das's research paper has sparked a lively political debate, particularly on Twitter. A number of politicians have also actively expressed their views on the paper.

Congress MP Mr. Sashi Tharoor tweeted, "hugely troubling analysis for all lovers of Indian democracy"

BJP MP Dr. Nishikant Dubey tweeted, "how can someone in the name of half - baked research discredit India's Vibrant poll process? How can any university allow it?"

Speaking on the matter, Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee said "BJP have already begun their planning for 2024 elections. They are making various arrangements to hack electronic machines used in elections. We have received such information and have already found some evidence. We are also looking for more. This will be discussed during the next meeting of INDIA alliance members".