Sheikh Hasina’s Future in Focus as BNP’s Electoral Surge Reshapes Bangladesh’s Political Landscape

A decisive political transition in Bangladesh has brought renewed attention to the fate of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who continues to live in exile in New Delhi as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) prepares to assume power in Dhaka. With the party’s sweeping electoral gains and its longstanding demand for Hasina’s return, the former premier’s legal and political future is poised to become a central issue in bilateral ties and domestic governance.

Hasina, who fled Bangladesh following mass unrest and political upheaval, has dismissed the current elections as a “sham” and “farce.” Meanwhile, BNP leader Tarique Rahman stands on the verge of leading the government, marking the party’s return to national power nearly two decades after his mother Khaleda Zia last served as prime minister.

BNP’s decisive electoral gains
The BNP has recorded a commanding performance in the parliamentary elections, crossing the 200-seat mark and securing 208 seats as of early afternoon local time, according to The Daily Star. Out of 299 constituencies contested, counting continues in a limited number of seats as results near completion.

BNP and its allies have secured at least 182 seats in confirmed results so far, while Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies have won 62 constituencies. Counting has been completed in 251 constituencies, with results awaited in the remaining seats.
The scale of the BNP’s victory signals a major shift in Bangladesh’s political order and positions the Rahman-led party to formally constitute the next government.

Exile in India and political messaging

Since her ouster, Hasina has remained in India, maintaining a relatively low public profile. Aside from occasional public appearances and limited sightings, she has largely stayed out of the spotlight while continuing to issue periodic political statements.

In January 2026, she delivered a strongly worded address from Delhi, urging Bangladeshis to mobilise against the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus. In her message, she called on citizens to defend constitutional order and sovereignty, underscoring her continued political engagement despite being outside the country.

Death sentence and mounting extradition pressure

Hasina’s position has become increasingly precarious following a tribunal court’s November 2025 decision sentencing her to death over the violent crackdown on student protesters during the July uprising. The verdict prompted political parties and state authorities in Bangladesh to intensify calls for her return.

The Bangladeshi foreign ministry has formally urged India to hand over the former prime minister, stating that providing refuge to individuals convicted of crimes against humanity would undermine justice and bilateral goodwill. Authorities in Dhaka have also initiated moves under the India–Bangladesh extradition framework to secure her return.

Senior BNP leaders have described the matter as both a legal obligation and a sovereignty issue, emphasising that future bilateral relations must move forward “beyond Sheikh Hasina.” With the BNP poised to lead the government, formal diplomatic steps to pursue extradition are widely anticipated.

Managing ties with New Delhi

Despite earlier tensions between India and Bangladesh that emerged after Hasina’s departure from Dhaka in 2024, the BNP has struck a conciliatory tone following the election outcome. The party expressed gratitude to Narendra Modi for recognising the results and congratulating Rahman.

Responding to the message, BNP polls coordination committee chief Nazrul Islam Khan said the party hoped relations between the two neighbouring countries would strengthen, describing India’s recognition of the electoral verdict as a positive signal. The BNP has also expressed optimism that bilateral ties will deepen under the new political dispensation.

Nevertheless, Hasina’s continued presence in India is expected to test diplomatic engagement between the two countries as Dhaka presses its legal and political demands.

Representation and emerging political dynamics

Preliminary results also highlight limited representation of women in the parliamentary elections. At least seven women candidates have secured victories, according to Prothom Alo. Out of 1,981 candidates contesting the polls, only 78 were women.

Among those elected are BNP candidates Afroza Khanam Rita, Tahsina Rushdir Luna, Farzana Sharmin, Shama Obaid Islam and Nayab Yusuf Ahmed. BNP-alliance candidate Israt Sultana Elen Bhutto and independent candidate Rumeen Farhana have also won their constituencies.

Uncertain road ahead

As the BNP prepares to take charge in Dhaka, the question of Sheikh Hasina’s return from New Delhi looms large. With a death sentence against her, formal extradition efforts underway, and the new government expected to prioritise the issue, her exile is set to remain at the centre of Bangladesh’s political and diplomatic discourse in the months ahead.​