In a dramatic political turnaround, Chief Minister Hemant Soren has led the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to a resounding victory in the state assembly elections, securing 34 of the 41 seats it contested. The victory, which boosts the INDIA bloc’s tally to 56 of the 81 seats, marks a decisive edge over the BJP and its allies, ensuring a second consecutive term for the Soren-led government in Jharkhand.

The BJP, which had hoped to capitalize on issues of migration and demographic change, managed to secure just 21 seats—four fewer than in the last election, signaling a significant defeat in a state where tribals form the backbone of political power. JMM's victory, despite facing a series of political and legal challenges, underscores the party’s deepening hold over Jharkhand’s tribal electorate, a key constituency that has been the party's stronghold.

The outcome of this election is all the more remarkable given the series of tumultuous events leading up to it. Hemant Soren, who had been arrested by the Enforcement Directorate earlier this year in connection with an alleged illegal land grab, spent months in custody before mounting a vigorous election campaign that ultimately led to a comeback few had predicted.

“I always said I would not bow down, and I knew we would win. The people have seen the development we’ve done, they know we care for them. The BJP only cares for power,” Soren said, addressing the media after the results were declared.

The Rise of the JMM
In a state where the tribal vote is decisive, JMM’s continued dominance in the tribal belt was a key factor in its victory. The party won 20 of the 28 reserved ST (Scheduled Tribe) seats in Jharkhand, with its alliance partner, the Congress, adding 7 seats to the tally. Together, the JMM and Congress retained their stronghold in the tribal areas that had been key to their 2019 success. In contrast, the BJP, despite focusing its campaign on the issues of "infiltration" and the potential loss of tribal lands, struggled to make inroads, winning only a single seat in the Santal tribal belt.

In the 2024 election, JMM's success was rooted in a range of welfare measures introduced by the Soren government. Notably, Hemant Soren launched the Maiyya Samman scheme, which promises financial assistance of ₹1,000 per month to all women aged 18 to 50, a policy that resonated strongly with Jharkhand's rural electorate. Additionally, the waiver of power dues for 40 lakh families to the tune of ₹3,500 crore and the expansion of a universal pension scheme for the elderly and disabled added to the sense of welfare-driven governance under Soren.

Soren’s victory also underlines the failure of BJP's strategy to appeal to the tribal community through its campaign, which focused heavily on fears of "Bangladeshi infiltration" altering the state’s demographic balance. The BJP’s pitch on issues such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) also failed to gain traction in a state where tribal identities and land rights are a central issue.

A Setback for BJP and its Allies
The BJP’s disappointing performance in Jharkhand was compounded by several high-profile losses within its ranks. Among the most notable setbacks was the defeat of AJSU Party leader Sudesh Mahato, who lost his seat in Silli, and BJP’s own Sita Soren, who was defeated in Jamtara. Other high-profile losses for the BJP included Sunil Soren in Dumka, Geeta Koda (wife of former CM Madhu Koda) in Jagannathpur, and Meera Munda, wife of former Union Minister Arjun Munda, in Potka.

Despite securing a substantial 33.2% of the vote share, down from 37.4% in 2019, the BJP's seat count dropped significantly from 25 to 21. The party's appeal to voters in the tribal regions fell short, with the JMM-Congress alliance firmly securing these seats.

BJP’s campaign strategy, which included promises to address the issue of "illegal infiltration" and the introduction of a Uniform Civil Code, was largely rejected by voters. In the Palamu division, which has 9 seats, the BJP won 4, and in the North Chotanagpur region, the BJP secured 14 out of 25 seats. However, in the South Chotanagpur region, which has 15 seats, the BJP managed only 2 wins, while in Kolhan, it won just 3 seats.

“The loss in Jharkhand is deeply painful for me. I had witnessed the support for PM Modi and ou development work. We fought with a vision to protect the state from infiltration. However we must humbly accept the mandate of the people, and work harder on the ground for a better tomorrow”, said Assam CM Hemanta Biswa Sarma, who was incharge of the election campaign in the state. BJP gave the cry to save the Tribal land while stoking fears for alleged “illegal infiltration”, relying on slogans like “batenge to katenge (fall if we get split)”

The Tribal Vote: A Key Factor in JMM's Success

In 2019, the JMM-Congress alliance had decisively won the tribal-dominated regions of Jharkhand, securing 25 out of 28 ST seats. This year, JMM’s continued focus on tribal issues, particularly the controversial 1932 Khatiyan Bill that defines land and domicile rights based on 1932 land records, and its stance on a separate Sarna religious code for tribals, struck a chord with voters. The JMM’s focus on identity politics and development initiatives helped cement its hold over the state’s powerful tribal electorate, who form 26% of Jharkhand’s population and are spread across 21 of the state’s 24 districts.
“We’ve passed the exam of democracy,” said Hemant Soren, reflecting on the electoral triumph. The Chief Minister also spoke of his party’s commitment to furthering the welfare of Jharkhand’s people, especially its marginalized tribal communities, and emphasized that the state’s future development would continue to be shaped by the needs and rights of its indigenous population.

Final Results:
* JMM: 34 seats (+4), 23.4% vote share
* INC: 16 seats, 15.6% vote share
* RJD: 4 seats (+3), 3.4% vote share
* CPI(ML)(L): 2 seats (+1), 1.9% vote share
* BJP: 21 seats (-4), 33.2% vote share
* AJSU: 1 seat, 4.8% vote share
* LJP (Ram Vilas): 1 seat, 1.2% vote share
* JD(U): 1 seat, 0.8% vote share
With these results, the JMM-led government is expected to retain control of Jharkhand, with Hemant Soren poised to continue as Chief Minister. The BJP, on the other hand, will have to reconsider its approach in the state, particularly in addressing the concerns of the tribal communities who have once again proven to be the key to electoral success in Jharkhand.